North Korea

For the duration of the Sunshine Policy, but particularly since Roh Moo-hyun came to power in late 2002, the South Koreans have scrupulously avoided antagonising the North, sometimes to the point of absurdity. Even allowing for a certain amount of posturing while they negotiate the transfer of military command with Washington, Seoul's latest Defence Ministry report, which describes Pyongyang as "a serious threat," is therefore doubly disturbing.

With Abe still riding the nationalist wave in Tokyo, and the six way talks involving Russia and the Chinese stalled like a second hand Lada, the question isn't so much whether Kim Jong-il will listen, but how he can be manoeuvered into concessions without the whole thing toppling down, taking much of East Asia and the rest of the dollar with it.